One of the domains in which I have a couple of decades of experience is business cycle analysis.

It is a specific field within economics that focuses upon how and why economies move through periods of growth, contraction (i.e. recession), decelerations, and accelerations.

The broader economics profession is infamous for having a very poor track record at forecasting the business cycle, so I have focused my years of study and learning on frameworks that have displayed success.  

One of the important analytical concepts I have learned is something that has been fruitful across the various analytical domains in which I traverse: the three Ps. These are pronounced, persistent and pervasive. 

When analysing football performances and related data over time, levels can be volatile from game to game, week to week, or month to month and especially for individual players. Applying the three Ps can help with evaluating consistency and how robust a team or a player’s style of play and skillset may be. 

Pronounced performance levels offer evidence of a potential change in trend. For example, do you remember some of the eye-watering early performances in Ange Postecoglou’s tenure? Celtic posted several extremely high goal and xG tallies in August 2021 as opponents were confronted with the new challenge. That explosion of attacking might was certainly a pronounced arrival for the manager.  

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Persistence of performance levels can indicate that a change in trend may be durable, which is to say a period of maintaining improved results over a few weeks or months is important. While there were a couple of choppy results early in Postecoglou’s tenure, underlying performance levels were, and remain, very persistent domestically.

Pervasiveness suggests that performance levels are not being driven by a relatively small number of players and this concept relates to potential robustness.

We have seen the power of the ‘system’ under Postecoglou, as player absences and departures have not stopped the train from rolling down the tracks. Kyogo Furuhashi out for a few months? Goalscoring was provided by others. A World Cup starring right-back’s departure surely must result in a weaker team, right?

My friend Alan Morrison’s recent column on Liel Abada reminded me of my analytical journey on the Israeli, which started out quite sceptical. To be frank, at times he can make the game look quite ugly.

However, that scepticism turned to appreciation over time, with the three Ps process playing its role. Alan’s column covered how much Abada’s measurables have improved this season and it has occurred by displaying the three Ps, I would argue. 

Abada’s performance data has the three Ps all over the place. For example, while I was playing around with StatsBomb’s new key pass visualisation tool, I noticed Abada’s name popping up as a high-quality recipient of team-mates’ key passes.

Here is Reo Hatate’s list of key pass recipients so far this season (note: each report is sorted by average xG per shot):

Next is Aaron Mooy:

Now Matt O’Riley:

That takes care of the main attacking midfielders, so how about the opposite-sided wingers with whom Abada has primarily played alongside?

Here's Jota:

Note in the three above Abada had just a single shot.

Now for Sead Haksabanovic:

Abada’s persistent presence as being his team-mates’ highest-quality shot recipient suggests his ability to identify and capitalise on space is excellent.

By comparison, despite his obvious talents, Jota has not been near as impactful through this lens. Here is an on-ball value radar comparing the two for league games so far this season:

StatsBomb’s shot OBV metric gauges how well players have finished relative to the quality of chances they’ve taken, but also whether or not the decision to shoot was better than keeping possession and furthering an attack.

Abada’s post-shot xG is in line with the xG on the shots he has taken, so his excellent 0.15 in shot OBV is largely due to his good decisions as to when to shoot. 

To try to place Abada’s robust attacking performance levels into further context, this attacking-focused radar compares Abada this season with Odsonne Edouard’s tremendous 2019-20 season:

Abada posting striker-like attacking levels while playing as a wide forward is impressive. Using my three Ps framework, I think there are good odds that these levels are a true reflection of his potential, given the evidence of spatial intelligence and shot decision-making.

While recent media reports suggest his Celtic future may be in question, it would not surprise me if an analytics-savvy club were to be his destination should he depart.

The same goes for what seems like it may be the inevitable day of mourning within the Celtic support if or when Postecoglou eventually departs Parkhead. These are two guys with a lot of three Ps.