Why Celtic v Rangers adaptation hints at a Champions League boost

Specifically, I was fascinated to see what his reaction would be to his side's derby win over Rangers at Parkhead. It had been another one-goal victory, and some claimed the fake “but we won on xG” trophies and took solace in seeming to limit the Hoops with an aggressive high press.

Certainly, Celtic’s xG of 0.93 (by my metrics) is the lowest of the season in any game. StatsBomb had it an even lower 0.60. Also, Postecoglou's side had not passed the ball as inaccurately (80 per cent completion according to StatsBomb) in any tie.

I counted a total of eight shots (many included Sead Haksabanovic’s 76th-minute effort as a shot as opposed to the attempt to find Daizen Maeda I suspect it was). The shot count too is a season-low. Touches in the box, at 16, were only higher than in the loss to Real Madrid at the Bernabeu and in the 2-2 at Ibrox.

Pack passes – those that take opponents out the game - were a mere 48. That's a season-low by six.

READ MORE: Ange Postecoglou's superb Celtic away-day rejuvenation

Watching in real-time, you could see the lack of fluency on occasions and the number of missed passes and flustered moments. Surely the manager would be dissatisfied? After all, the mantra is performance first.

Celtic players post-game and the manager both alluded to not quite following the gameplan but, generally, they seemed pleased with the outcome.

It seemed a long way from the usual 100-miles-per-hour, all-out attacking football Postecoglou is famed for and the Hoops have largely delivered that in Scotland this season. 

Haa the Australian turned into a result-first coach, or did his satisfaction perhaps arise out of a job well done?

Certainly, Celtic did not need to win this game as much as their opponents. However, that can be a dangerous scenario to be in. Is the opponent more motivated? Are your players caught between stools?

What we can rely on from the manager is clarity of aim and simplicity of message for the players. 

Did that change from the norm on Saturday? Let's take a look...

Passing approach

It was clear from the first half that team orders were to be a little less expansive than normal.

Time after time, Carl Starfelt and Cameron Carter-Vickers eschewed a forward pass to cut back and recycle the ball. 

Of 225 first-half passes completed, the centre-back pairing was responsible for 100 of them.

Only 13 of those were pack passes, taking at least one opponent out of the game, but generally this was only the initial press of forwards and did not penetrate the deeper midfield or defence.

In the second half, Carter-Vickers became more expansive in attempting longer passes.

Credit is due to the visitor’s pressing intensity and shape. Nicolas Raskin (31), Todd Cantwell (31), Alfredo Morelos (30), Malik Tillman (29) and Ryan Kent (24) all pressured Celtic intensely in that first half. But, tellingly, this pressure intensity dropped off markedly in the second half.

Perhaps this is the learning Postecoglou took from the previous derby matches, that the away side, like many domestically, trailed away in energy as the match wore on. 128 pressures in the first half dipped to 84 in the second. By contrast, for Celtic, it was 118 and 104.

However, it remains the case that the Parkhead side were loathe to give easy possession in that first half, patience that comes from playing the long game.

Team shape

Firstly, both sides lined up in a 4-4-2 shape out of possession. Celtic have played this way in European ties with Matt O’Riley pushed up alongside Kyogo Furuhashi to form the lead press. He led the game in 38 pressures.

A 4-4-2 shape is compact and the roles are relatively straightforward. Many teams - Arsenal, for instance - play this way without the ball these days.

Both sides matched up in that regard. It was interesting, therefore, that Celtic adopted a 'European' approach to their defending in this match. Again, one they did not need to force.

More interesting was the Parkhead side's shape with the ball. The StatsBomb passing network maps are quite instructive as to Celtic’s shape in possession.

There are two strikingly different features to their play versus a 'normal' SPFL encounter.

Firstly, Alistair Johnston, in particular, and Greg Taylor, to a lesser extent, were far more conservative in their runs and in their inversion movements.

Johnston almost tucked in as a third centre-back to maintain central solidity. He rarely ventured forward and even less aggressively inverted to vacate the wide position in case of a transition involving the Borna Barisic getting forward.

Here is Johnston’s aggregated heatmap for the season courtesy of SofaScore:

He is as much forward and inside as he is out wide. Now check out his heat map from this game:

Here, he is much more restrained and focused on keeping a degree of defensive discipline.

Taylor was a little more expansive and joined Callum McGregor and Aaron Mooy in a midfield three, as Celtic usually have in attack.

Here is Taylor’s seasons aggregated heatmap:

He is even more aggressive in his forward play than Johnston with the number eight position being a familiar destination.

Against the challengers, he was also a little more disciplined:

He was more likely to cover inside his own half than supplement attacks.

Normally Celtic rely on the two centre-backs to cover transitions as a last line, protected by a three of McGregor and the two full-backs. An attacking five then attacks the spaces between the defenders.

In this game, O’Riley supported the trio of Furuhashi, Jota and Maeda, and Celtic were effectively 3-3-4 in attack. It may not seem a big difference but attacking with such a shape compared to the usual 2-3-5 ends up being a tactical tweak to improve solidity, be more transition resistant, and recognise the conditions you are playing under.

Sounds very much like the bit pragmatism critics, including me, were looking for when faced with challenges in Europe.

Game state is also a vital context. Celtic’s pressing, and the opposition's tiredness having expended considerable energy restricting them in the first half, led to lapses allowing firstly Furuhashi and then Jota to capitalise on calamitous Rangers defending.

Given a two-goal lead and the context of the game, there was no need for the Champions to go chasing goals or overcommitting and boosting attacking stats.

In fact, Postecoglou’s only misstep was possibly to replace O’Riley with Oh Hyeon-gyu and keep Furuhashi on. Celtic lost a goal quite quickly after scoring their third and had a few dramas after that.

Conclusion

Celtic won another Glasgow Derby but, given the lead in the league and the strength of the opposition, Postecoglou appeared to set up his team like it was a European tie.

The full-backs were more conservative in their attacking positioning and the centre-backs were less willing to try and play through lines aggressively, especially in the first half.

O’Riley supplemented the attack while Mooy played a more hybrid number six/eight role and rarely bombed on beyond the forwards.

These were slight adjustments - but it signals Postecoglou is adaptable in his approach.