The Celtic numbers: How Hoops were held by St Mirren

After going behind early to a Curtis Main goal, following a defensive mix-up at the back, the Hoops responded quickly thanks to a great finish from Kyogo Furuhashi. Main was at the double just before half-time and his team were ahead until Callum McGregor equalised ten minutes before the end.

Ange Postecoglou made four changes to the side that was beaten 3-0 by Rangers in the previous fixture. Surprisingly, Tomoki Iwata started at centre-back for this match, replacing fellow countryman Yuki Kobayashi, while Greg Taylor was in for Alexandro Bernabei. It was an unchanged midfield but a different forward line as Hyeon-gyu Oh and Liel Abada made way for Kyogo Furuhashi and Daizen Maeda, respectively, in the attacking positions.

Here, The Celtic Way rounds up the best StatsBomb data from the game to give you a match report like no other…

xG/trendline

In what is becoming a slightly concerning pattern, the away side carved out the first chance of the game, which Main converted. After a lack of communication between Iwata and Anthony Ralston, the ball broke to the striker, who fired a tame shot past Joe Hart in the Celtic goal. This chance had an xG total of 0.05, which points to the unlikeliness of the opportunity leading to a goal. Hart, however, did not cover himself in glory here and allowed the shot to go through him in what was a very poor afternoon for the former England international.

However, Celtic responded quickly and started to attack Trevor Carson’s goal. Two minutes after conceding, Taylor’s shot (0.10 xG) was the first on target for Celtic, which was saved by the goalkeeper

Under 10 minutes later, Celtic would equalise thanks to Kyogo. Playing out from the back, Iwata passed the ball to Reo Hatate, who then found the forward in the box and he rifled the ball past the goalkeeper. The goal had an xG of 0.11, but a PSxG (post-shot expected goal) of 0.41, highlighting the quality of the shot.

It was then Celtic who had the majority of the goal-mouth action, with chances from Matt O’Riley, Hatate and Jota accumulating 0.15 xG collectively. St Mirren had low-scoring chances through the goalscorer Main, who was a menace all game to the Celtic defence, but they were not capitalised on.

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The biggest chance of the game from an xG standpoint came from Ryan Strain, who put his close-range shot past the post. The full-back scored 0.38 on xG for this, which was not beaten for the rest of the game in terms of chances created.

However, Celtic would not heed the warnings from the Paisley side and they took the lead again through Main. Following a header into his path by Mark O’Hara, Main calmly headed the ball past the flat-footed Hart. This chance again had a low xG of 0.11 but a PSxG of 0.39, indicating the quality and accuracy of the header.

Celtic fashioned three chances through Iwata, O’Riley and Maeda, scoring 0.21 in xG, but they trailed the visitors at half-time.

Into the second half and it was St Mirren who threatened to extend their lead, their best chance again falling to Main, who headed just wide (0.19 xG). Iwata then had a good opportunity with his head, but his effort went wide (0.14 xG). For the rest of the game, all of St Mirren’s chances fell to Main, who had a busy day leading the line for the visitors.

Celtic were pushing for an equaliser and following chances by players such as Maeda (0.21 xG) and Oh (who hit the post at a PSxG of 0.29), it was the captain who managed to save the day for the home side.

McGregor received the ball and dribbled before unleashing a curling strike from just outside the box, leaving Carson with no chance of reaching it thanks to its accuracy and power. The shot scored 0.05 in xG but again the PSxG was high at 0.53.

There were late-headed chances from Kyogo (0.08 xG) and Ralston (0.10 xG) but the game ended 2-2.

Our data provider calculated that the game scored 1.41-1.08 on accumulative xG, concluding that both teams perhaps overachieved in the scoring department thanks to some good finishing from the goalscorers.

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The race chart regarding xG concluded that based on the chances created, Celtic would win this game only 43 per cent of the time, with a draw and a St Mirren victory only clocking up scores of 31 and 26 per cent, respectively.

Celtic had 22 attempts at goal, but only six of these were on target, two of those being the goals from Kyogo and McGregor.

Both of these goals were from outside of the six-yard box, which is why these chances scored lower on the xG metric. Celtic take, on average, a total of 18.33 shots per 90 minutes, so they overperformed in this statistic in terms of shots taken.

St Mirren took 10 shots in this game, with only two being on target, and both ending up as goals. They underperformed slightly on their average of 11.83 shots per game, although to be close to their average away from home at Celtic Park is a sizable achievement for Robinson’s side.

O’Riley was Celtic’s busiest attacker in this game in terms of shots. The Dane took four shots, though scorrd a low accumulative score of 0.18 xG combined. Hatate was one behind him, taking three shots and earning himself a score of just 0.10 xG, coincidentally the exact same total for Jota for both shots and xG. Maeda scored the highest xG for his two shots (0.28), while Kyogo earned 0.19 xG alongside a goal scored.

For the away side, the large majority of their shots came from Main, who scored 0.64 xG off of eight shots at goal, scoring two. Strain had the best chance at 0.35, while Greg Kiltie only scored 0.06 xG off one shot.

Possession, passing and positions

As is the norm for Celtic, especially when they play at home, they enjoyed the vast majority of possession. They had 76 per cent possession with 829 passes, of which 726 were completed, at a success rate of 88 per cent. Conversely, the visitors had 24 per cent possession with 264 passes, completing 163 of them at a 62 per cent success rate.

The passing network gives a rough idea of where the majority of the game was played and who was the most involved. Remember that the warmer the colour, the more influential the player was in the game, and the thicker the passing lines, the more passes between the players.

StatsBomb measures pass contributions in on-ball value (often referred to as OBV, a term breakdown of which can be read here).

For Celtic, their standout player in terms of OBV was Jota who achieved a score of 0.27 off of 58 passes. The next highest was Ralston with 0.14 OBV in 93 passes. Hatate had an off day in this regard, as he scored -0.03 off of 48 passes, while Kyogo and McGregor were also in the negatives with six and 67 passes respectively, scoring both -0.02 on OBV.

The away side’s top OBV earner was Strain, who had the game’s highest total of 0.33 for 20 passes. Goalkeeper Carson was also a high OBV contributor, scoring 0.17 for just six passes. No player was in the negative for St. Mirren, with -0.00 being the lowest total for them in the form of Main’s eight passes.

Celtic’s passing network indicates that from the 11 players who started the game, a lot of their successes came from the right-hand side. As was previously mentioned, Jota was the most productive player for the home side, his warm OBV colour indicating his influence on the right wing for Celtic alongside Ralston behind him.

For St Mirren, their most influential player was also down the right-hand side of the park in the shape of Strain, the passing lines indicating this. However, Carson, Richard Taylor and Kiltie were also key in their side’s passing play judging by the network.

Much like his OBV, Jota was also the highest scorer in terms of key passes for Celtic, achieving five with an xG total of 0.41. Ralston again was just behind him with four on a total of 0.24. Hatate had three (0.22 xG), while Sead Haksabanovic and O’Riley completed two, (0.11 and 0.25), the latter making an impact in this metric despite coming on as a late substitute.

Strain again topped the charts in terms of key passes for St Mirren, his two scoring him an accumulation of 0.30 xG. Carson, Thierry Small, O’Hara and Alex Gogic all completed one key pass, their combined total equalling 0.26 in xG.

Pressing and Defending

Celtic initialised 141 pressures in this game to St Mirren’s 202, though they won the ball back more at a rate of 21 to 20 despite completing fewer pressures than their opponents.

In terms of individual players, Maeda was top for Celtic in pressures with 28, with usual winner O’Riley making 20. Hatate made nine counterpressures, with Maeda following closely behind with seven completed. O’Riley finished the game with six.

For the visitors, Kiltie led the pressures with 42 for his team, with Gogic and Baccus both managing 30, respectively. O’Hara made 20 for his side. Kiltie also made the highest counterpressure total for his team, though this was just three, while Gogic made two.

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Defensively, it was a strong showing for Starfelt, who played alongside an unfamiliar defensive partner in Iwata for the first time. His 11 clearances and 14 aerial duel wins (88-win percentage) made him the standout player at the back for the home side. Conversely, it was a baptism of fire for Iwata at the centre of defence, completing no tackles or interceptions and winning just four of his aerial duels at a rate of just 57 per cent. A tough day at the office for the Japan international, who had impressed in recent weeks, albeit in midfield.

Australian pair Strain and Baccus had good games on the defensive side of things for St Mirren, both accumulating four tackles and interceptions each. Main won the most aerial duels for his side, though his six successes only scored a percentage of 30 in the process. Gogic had the most efficient total for this as he won four out of four in aerial duels, a 100 per cent accumulation.