Celtic potential winter target Mathias Kvistgaarden scouted

The Danish under-21 international was the subject of interest from the club in the summer but a move to Parkhead failed to materialise.

Now, with Brendan Rodgers likely to lose both Kyogo and Oh to the Asian Cup in the New Year, Kvistgaarden is believed to be back on the Celtic manager’s radar ahead of the opening of the January transfer window.

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This scout report will take a closer look at Kvistgaarden by analysing his data and assessing his playing style to see what he would potentially bring to the Celtic frontline, should a move to Glasgow come to pass this time.

Player Profile

Born in Birkerod, Kvistgaarden started his professional career in Lyngby BK’s youth academy before making the move to Brondby in 2018. He made his full debut for the 11-time Danish champions in July 2020.

He has also represented Denmark from the under-18 level and has four goals in 13 appearances for their under-21 side where he has played alongside current Celtic midfielder Matt O’Riley.

Kvistgaarden has five goals and six assists to his name in the Danish Superliga so far this season, where he has been deployed primarily as a central striker in Brondby’s main formation this season, 3-4-3. He has also played out in the wide forward areas in this formation, as well as part of a front two in manager Jesper Sorensen’s other favoured formation, 3-5-2/5-3-2.

At the international level, Kvistgaarden has been used both centrally and out wide too but more recently, more often than not, he has been used as a left-winger in their 4-2-3-1/4-3-3.

In terms of his physical profile, Kvistgaarden is around 5ft 8in, so closer to Kyogo (5ft 7in) than Oh (6ft 1in) in this regard. He has an athletic build with decent lower-body strength that allows him to hold off opponents well. He also has good energy and decent pace, showing good bursts to escape his man and an ability to carry the ball at speed.

Data Analysis

The above chart uses Wyscout per-90 data converted into percentile ranks to compare Kvistgaarden to other centre-forwards in the Danish Superliga in the last calendar year (minimum 700 minutes played). This can start to build a clearer picture of Kvistgaarden’s playing style. The chart is split into three sections and includes several key attacking, possession and defending metrics.

Looking at his attacking section first, we can see that Kvistgaarden ranks highly for his volume of shots (2.63 per 90) with an around average, for a Danish Superliga centre-forward, xG per shot of 0.17. This has translated to 0.45 xG per 90 in the league over the last year with Kvistgaarden posting a steady 0.43 goals per 90.

His attacking section also highlights that despite not being the tallest striker he is a threat in the air, ranking in the 96th percentile for headed goals. Also in this section, we can see signs that he is a decent ball carrier. Kvistgaarden’s 4.7 dribbles per 90 ranks in the 88th percentile while his success rate of 48.33 per cent is above average for a striker in Denmark’s flight over the last 365 days. He also ranks highly, in the 85th percentile, for his progressive runs (1.69 per 90).

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Moving into the possession section we can see Kvistgaarden seems to be fairly involved in build-up play. He has a high rank, in the 79th percentile, for the number of passes he receives in an average match. He also ranks above the 50th percentile for both his overall pass volume and short/medium pass volume. Importantly, the 21-year-old boasts one of the highest accuracy percentages for his short/medium passes (84.04 per cent).

It is a similar picture for his progressive passing, with Kvistgaarden ranking just above average for his volume (1.85 per 90) but impressively in the top quarter for his accuracy in these too (76.6 per cent). For his more creative possession metrics, he is something of a standout. No other centre-forward in the Danish Superliga has averaged a higher number of key passes per 90 in the last year than Kvistgaarden (0.79 per 90) while only one other player in the dataset betters his 0.22 xA per 90.

The defensive section shows Kvistgaarden to be fairly busy off the ball. He ranks highly for his volume of defensive duels, contesting 4.99 per 90 with an above-average win rate versus his positional peers of 57.48 per cent. Aerially, he is involved in a just-above-average number for a Superliga striker (4.67 per 90) while his win rate of 32.77 per cent ranks just below the 50th percentile. Finally, and again highlighting his industry out of possession, Kvistgaarden posts the top rank for possession-adjusted (PAdj) interceptions (3.99 per 90).

Attacking

The below shot map from Wyscout – which plots Kvistgaarden’s shots in the last calendar year – gives further insight into the young attacker’s tendencies in front of goal.

Although naturally right-footed, Kvistgaarden shows good variation in his shots. Most of his efforts on goals in the last year have come from his stronger right (47) but he has also taken a reasonable amount with his left (29) and, as seen in his percentile rank chart, there are plenty of efforts from headers too (25). Covering his minutes in all competitions in the last year, this graphic again highlights a solid scoring rate with Kvistgaarden scoring 18 in all competitions from an xG of just under 17.

Most of his shots come from central areas in, or around the edge, of the box with just a smattering of shots from longer, angled distances. With double figures for each minute breakdown across matches, Kvistgaarden looks to be a sustained enough threat throughout his performances too.

Kvistgaarden gets into his goalscoring positions thanks to his pace and ability to make clever runs, such as the below example.

Here, as the loose ball drops to one of Brondby’s central midfielders, Kvistgaarden is quick to exploit the space between the left centre-back and left-back.

He shows good pace to burst through the gap and is robust enough to deal with contact from the recovering left-back as he bends his run nicely to receive the ball facing the goal.

The pass from his midfield teammate is well weighted but Kvistgaarden decelerates well and composes himself to lift the ball over the outrushing goalkeeper first-time.

Kvistgaarden’s pace and the timing of his runs make him a threat in behind but he is also a danger due to his dynamic movement off the ball which he uses to good effect in the box. An example of this is shown below. 

Here, Kvistgaarden initially moves one way, in behind his marker, before quickly shifting his weight and darting around in front of his man to make contact with the cross from the right.

Despite being on the stretch, he manages to get enough contact on the ball to force the goalkeeper into a good save at his near post.

This impressive movement, particularly for a young striker, makes him a threat in the air too. In the below example, Kvistgaarden again makes an initial movement one way, on the inside of his man, before making a movement around the back and peeling off the meet the cross from the left.

Despite not being the tallest, Kvistgaarden can make the most of these aerial chances thanks to an explosive spring, as he shows here, powering his header past the goalkeeper.

Although his shot map showed most of his chances coming from good positions, when watching clips there are a few examples of him taking on shots from less-than-ideal areas, particularly when played on the left. This is something that could be easily coached as he develops, though.

Possession

Kvistgaarden’s ability to cleverly exploit space makes him effective in possession too. He has decent technical ability and shows good receiving skills when dropping into pockets of space to help link the play.  

His standout creativity numbers, evident in his percentile rank chart, mostly come from the left side of the pitch with Kvistgaarden favouring to drift over into these spaces to then cut infield towards goal on his stronger right.

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This is highlighted by the below graphic from Wyscout, which shows more of his penalty area deliveries, be that passes, crosses or carries, come from the left than the right or the centre of the pitch.

Kvistgaarden shows decent variation in his chance creation. From crosses from deeper areas to lay-offs to strike partners in the box, he generally shows good awareness when picking out teammates. One example is shown below.

Here, Kvistgaarden shows excellent agility to drop the shoulder and beat two opponents in a fluid movement that creates space for him to lift his head and roll the ball into his teammate for an effort around the penalty spot.

A proportion of his chance creation also comes through Kvistgaarden’s ability in transition phases. His pace, coupled with strong ball-carrying abilities, which also showed up in his data, make him a danger when the ball is turned over. An example of this is shown below.

As Brondby transitioned to attack after winning the ball back on the edge of their box, Kvistgaarden exploited the space on the outside, sprinting down the left wing.

Receiving a nicely-weighted pass, Kvistgaarden was able to take the ball in his stride, carrying it to the edge of the box at speed before lifting a ball between the opponent’s centre-back and recovering midfielder that ran to his strike partner at the back post for an effort on goal.

Defending

Kvistgaarden is, again as hinted at in his percentile rank chart, busy off the ball. He presses the game aggressively in high areas, often forcing opposition defenders into rushing passes or going long. The below graphic shows the impact of Kvistgaarden’s recoveries in the final third over the past year.

Here we can see recoveries right across the final third and well into the box with Kvistgaarden turning the ball over for his side 41 times, leading to 13 shots and an xG of 1.97/2 goals. An example of his pressing leading to an opportunity for Brondby is shown below.

Here, Kvistgaarden is quick to close in as the opposition defender takes a touch inside. Moving in, he shows good strength, quickly stealing the ball before racing towards the box and pulling the ball back for his strike partner to have an effort on goal.

One criticism of his work of possession would be that he is not quite aggressive in his efforts in deeper areas of the pitch. When the ball is past him, he does not show the same tenacity to recover as he does to press the ball when it is in front of him.

An example of this is shown below where Kvistgaarden tracks back ok but then doesn’t get across the line of the pass or apply enough pressure as the opponent plays forward into the attacker's feet with ease.

Also, although he is robust enough to hold off opponents in attacking situations, he does not have the physicality, particularly height/upper-body strength, to be overly effective in 1v1 defensive situations on these occasions where he does track back. 

His decent ability in the air means Kvistgaarden has often been used as part of Brondby’s defensive setup at set-pieces though. For example, at corners, he usually screens the front post zonally where he has been quite effective at cutting out any balls aimed towards that area.

Conclusion

Kvistgaarden is a highly promising talent who has already proven to be very effective in a similar level league to that of the Scottish Premiership.

Considering he would be playing in an even more domestically dominant team (Brondby are currently 3rd for possession in the Danish Superliga and only average the fifth highest xG per 90 in the league), he would more than likely make an immediate impact should a move to Celtic transpire in the January window.

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Given his added ability to cover wide areas, his likelihood for further development, and Celtic’s upcoming short-term lack of attacking options due to the Asian Cup, an agreement for Kvistgaarden in the early weeks of January would represent a good start to what feels like an especially crucial transfer window for the club.