This is how Rodgers' Celtic defeat Rangers at Ibrox tomorrow

Rangers could be two points ahead, were it not for the unusual decision to not play the postponed Dundee fixture on the first available midweek. A midweek slot with no competing football live on Sky. Received professional wisdom is ‘points on the board’.

And so, because of this, Rangers go into the game with the added pressure of trailing their rivals. A tactical error? Will it matter and be sufficient to overcome home advantage with no away fans?

If you know your history

What did we learn from the previous meeting this season?

The first game in September at Ibrox saw the home team led by Michael Beale. From those starting lines, Celtic would likely make three changes. All strengthen the side.

Cameron Carter-Vickers will replace Stephen Welsh (the consistent American didn’t play in the Celtic Park tie either). Reo Hatate will replace Paolo Bernardo, which has the bonus of pushing Matt O’Riley closer to Kyogo Furuhashi which is a productive partnership (see below). Finally, Nicolas Kuhn will replace Luis Palma. This means Daizen Maeda returns to his favoured left-hand side – the James Tavernier-bothering position. Kuhn also adds frightening pace to the team.

On O’Riley and Kyogo.

O’Riley has set up 22 of the 111 shots for Kyogo (six assists) with a total xG value of 4.56. Kyogo has set up 12 of the 98 shots O’Riley has had with three assists and a total xG of 1.77. They combined for the winning goal at Ibrox.

We do not know who will play left-back for the home side. Borna Barisic was regularly bested by Liel Abada and Kuhn is significantly quicker. Dujon Sterling may get pushed out there and has previously struggled when asked to play as a right-footed left-back in a derby. He would also leave a combative and athletic gap in midfield. Or it might be Ridvan Yilmaz whose Rangers career is blossoming but who remains suspect position-wise.

Kuhn has had 38 touches in the opposition penalty box in the last three games. His seven shots have resulted in one goal from an xG of 1.24. He has created 12 chances in those three games with an xA of 1.94 generating two assists. When he joined the Scottish Sun wanted us all to know he was “injury-prone and terrible”. He may be Celtic’s semi-secret weapon at the weekend.  See Ryan’s piece here.

Hatate has hardly featured this season and got 65 minutes of action at Livingston. Although he did not complete the match, he had the highest packing score for passing with 103 from 14 pack passes. More importantly, he looked sharp and forward-thinking if lacking in match fitness. It was noticeable how often he appeared in pockets of half space and was immediately looking to get the ball forward, something Paulo Bernardo appears reluctant to do.

Having Carter-Vickers back is immense for Celtic. There isn’t a stat for ‘looks cool and composed in everything he does’.  With him in the team, Celtic averaged 1.06 xG against in the league. When he is present, this drops to 0.76, a nearly 40 per cent improvement.

Beale’s tactics in the Ibrox game were unfathomable in that his side did not press the wobbly back line of Liam Scales and Gustaf Lagerbielke, and then sat off Callum McGregor - allowing him to do things he does when given time and space. Phillipe Clement is a more serious proposition, so that will likely be different. However, the personnel changes from that match for Celtic will largely be hugely positive.

Transitions

Both sides tend to allow their full-backs latitude to wander differently. With the home team, it is all about getting Tavernier and Barisic/Yilmaz forwards but wide to bang cross after cross into the box. With Celtic, it varies, with Greg Taylor pushing inside to play passes into channels, whilst Alistair Johnston tends to want to buccaneer up the right and join in with the winger. Either way, there are risks in transition if the ball is lost.

Rangers compensate with a dedicated sitting midfielder in John Lundstram, often accompanied by another sitter in front of Connor Goldson and John Souttar.  Celtic set up with a 2-3-5 arrangement with the ball where the full-backs and McGregor shield the back two in the event of a counterattack. With Clement, his side often ends up in attack in a 2-3-4-1 shape. Both leave the opportunity for the flanks to be vulnerable on the counter.

We can see that Celtic concede more counterattacking shots than Rangers – 0.77 to 0.6 per game. However, at home - and needing to win the match ideally - it may be Rangers in this case with more risks to take.

With the greater relative mobility of Scales and Carter-Vickers versus Souttar and Goldson, it will be interesting to see which defensive line cracks first. So far, we have seen Kyogo steal in for the winner at Ibrox ahead of the ponderous back two. And then at Celtic Park, a Maeda burst forced Leon Balogun into a desperate denial of a goal-scoring red card challenge.

The home side will be very nervous about the Celtic counterattacking speed from Maeda, Kyogo and now Kuhn - who is the quickest of the three. Add that to an attitude of ‘must-win’ and Celtic may get joy in transition.

Tale of two captains

If fan comments are anything to go by the consensus seems to be a home team dread that Callum McGregor will likely feature.

Nominally, at Ibrox, Kemar Roofe was almost sacrificed and was supposed to be shackling Celtic’s treble-laden skipper. This did not work out so well as McGregor racked up the highest packing score in the match with 98, including eight-pack passes. Meanwhile, Tavernier’s numbers also looked good on the face of it – two chances created and one shot at goal. However, the two chances were both from set-piece passes, and the shot was from well outside the box.

Tavernier is by some distance the most creative player in the home side so getting him into advanced areas is crucial. Maeda’s off-ball discipline and hounding ability will attempt to limit the marauding right-back forays into enemy territory. Meanwhile, Lundstram, Rangers’ most destructive midfielder, sits too deep to impact McGregor directly. If they are to rely on the most forward midfielder - likely Todd Cantwell - to limit McGregor, that may be a stretch. Cantwell is - how can I put this delicately - a bit of a free spirit when it comes to team shape and orders.

In theory, given their positional play, this makes sense.

Cantwell tends to occupy the right-half positions that McGregor, on the Celtic left, will predominantly inhabit.  It then comes down to a question of capability and skill set but also team approach. Clement seems a front-foot manager. Will he want to man-mark McGregor and sacrifice a pawn in a must-win game? If he does, would it be Cantwell who tends to go off in search of the ball? Does that then leave more space for Hatate and O’Riley to operate their more attacking wiles?

Both sides need to get their influential captains into the game, but for Rangers in particular, may have to make sacrifices to do so.

Summary

No real theme today, just some areas I have been pondering in the build-up. Celtic are in a decent place as a squad in terms of personnel and fitness. Also, Rangers gave many players hitherto injured game time at home to Hibernian, so they presumably feel likewise.

This Celtic side has already conquered an entirely hostile Ibrox and will be much stronger in this tie. Rangers must win, and Celtic are set up to hold the advantage in transitions. Both sides will be desperate to get their captains involved but for Rangers to quell McGregor, they may need to make tactical compromises.

I’ll have flipped my optimism by Sunday!