The stats that prove Celtic were worthy winners in Dundee

Following a bright start to proceedings, James Forrest scored a spectacular half-volley, leaving Dundee goalkeeper Jon McCracken rooted to the spot as it flashed past him. He would be the source of Celtic’s second goal, too, as he took advantage of Dundee’s defensive mishaps at the back to double their lead against Tony Docherty’s spirited side. The home side would rally and set up a nervy end to proceedings, however, as Antonio Portales’ deflected effort hit Adam Idah and ended up in the back of Joe Hart’s net. Despite this late flurry, Celtic would defend their goal successfully and managed to come away with a vital three points, with just four games remaining.

Using StatsBomb data, The Celtic Way brings you an analytically-driven match report like no other…

Race chart + key stats

Despite the close scoreline at full-time, Celtic dominated proceedings in terms of passing and possession, attempting over 600 and having 67 per cent of the ball to Dundee’s 33. Shots were a different story, however, as the home side ran them close at a rate of 11-15, even managing the same volume of shots on target with six. Celtic’s cumulative xG was 1.39, compared to 0.66 for the hosts, meaning they outperformed their expected goal haul ever so slightly.

The above race chart measures how the game flowed concerning the quality of chances created by both sides. Celtic raced ahead of their opponents, which was made evident following Forrest’s first goal of the afternoon. Dundee had chances to close the xG gap – particularly in the second half – but Celtic pulled away following the second goal, again scored by Forrest.

Given the chances made by both sides, StatsBomb gave Celtic a 53 per cent chance of winning this contest – a low percentage for the side given their relative control of the game as a contest. A draw was scored as 29 per cent, whilst a home win for Dundee was calculated as 18 per cent.

Team line-ups, positions and passing

As is the norm with Celtic this season, they lined up in their usual 4-3-3 formation for this game, with the only change being Forrest for Yang Hyun-jun on the left wing. Joe Hart assumed his usual spot within the sticks, as Rodgers persevered with the same back-line of Alistair Johnston, Cameron Carter-Vickers, Liam Scales and Greg Taylor. Callum McGregor remained in the midfield and was joined by Reo Hatate and Matt O’Riley in the engine room. Kyogo Furuhashi led the line once again, supported by Forrest and Nicolas Kuhn on either side of the wing.

Celtic’s passing network was more even than in previous weeks, as both the left and right-hand sides were used. A ‘front six’ was utilised, meaning that Celtic’s four defenders plus Hart were the only players situated in their own half.

Of the starters, Scales had the best-performing OBV – represented by their shade - followed by Hatate and Kuhn. Kyogo and McGregor both struggled to get involved concerning this metric, perhaps an indicator of their overall performance at Dens Park. Scales’ 73 passes at 0.16 OBV was the highest total for Celtic, in what was a poor game with regard to the data. Hatate and Kuhn had 0.14 and 0.12, whilst Kyogo and McGregor both posted a negative OBV rating of -0.07 for their showings.

O’Riley – a regular contributor to this total – again had the highest key passes for Celtic on the day, managing four at a combined xG of 0.41. Surprisingly, Carter-Vickers had the next most in this metric with two, whilst Hatate, Johnston and Scales all had one each.

Shooting

Only one place to start, as Forrest’s goal to open the scoring, was a thing of beauty. Receiving the ball following a fortuitous touch from Kyogo that fell in his direction, the veteran winger wasted no time and hit it on the half-volley, leaving McCracken with no chance in the Dundee goal. A shot originally scored at 0.05 in xG, Forrest’s PSxG was ranked at 0.58, indicating how well the winger took the strike, especially once the ball left his foot.

His second was a good finish, too, though his choice of shooting straight at McCracken was reflected in the PSxG. Originally at 0.34, it dropped to 0.10 in PSxG due to placing the ball centrally, though it thankfully did find its way into the back of the opposition’s net with power and precision. A great day at the office for arguably Celtic’s main man at present.

Celtic’s shot map as a whole was more barren than in other contests, though they still managed to generate 15 shots, with chances coming both inside and outside of the box. They will be wanting to improve in this area, especially with two games at home coming up next.

Forrest was Celtic’s top shooter on the day, managing four shots at an xG of 0.44. Amazingly, Scales had three, alongside Kuhn, whilst Hatate tried his luck with two, including an unlucky shot that hit the post. If his well-taken strike had been converted, then we may have been talking about a 3-0 win and a clean sheet for Rodgers’ side.

Pressing and defending

Rodgers’ side initialised 150 pressures to Dundee’s 187, regaining the ball 20 times to the home team’s 33 as a result. It was a different top culprit concerning pressures this week, as Taylor led the way with 18, closely followed by Kuhn and McGregor with 17 and 16 respectively. In fact, Celtic had 10 players who contributed 10 or more pressures in Sunday’s game, an impressive feat. For counterpressures, Johnston had seven, whilst Taylor and O’Riley had five.

For combined tackles and interceptions, Taylor again ruled the roost when it came to defending on Sunday with a total of five, whilst Kuhn had three. Scales and Carter-Vickers had a combined 17 clearances between them, meanwhile the former won nine of his aerial duals, in what was a good game from the recently under-fire Ireland defender.