Who is the better Celtic right back: Juranovic or Johnston?

He has just come off the back of what I judged a Man of the Match performance in the Glasgow Derby. Equal most successful challenges and interceptions with 11, he was second best in winning the ball back four times in his own defensive third, and won back possession eight times, three more than the next highest.

On the ball, he created two chances including the game-breaking assist for Daizen Maeda. He was joint first in delivering 11 pack passes and had the highest xA with 0.56.

Overall, he had the second-highest packing score with 97 and the second-highest expected scoring contribution with 0.56.

Read more:

• What is 'killer stat' from Statsbomb OBV?

Statsbomb’s on-ball value model saw him top with a score of 1.0. I don’t recall seeing such a high single-game score. It was a varied and busy performance.

If I reflect on the transition from Ange Postecoglou’s side to Brendan Rodgers (Johnston was a Postecoglou signing) it could be argued only he and Kasper Schmeichel are upgrades on players Celtic has lost from Postecoglou’s team. And the latter is an opinion based on very little data.

Johnston was purchased pre-breakout World Cup in the Winter of 2023. He replaced Germany-bound Josip Juranovic, a Croatian internationalist who also had a productive World Cup in Qatar.

Juranovic was the mainstay of the right-back berth during the 2021-22 season (2788 minutes) and Johnston has also completed one full season in 2023-34 (3531 minutes).

So let us compare!

Defending

The framework for assessing defending is to consider two aspects. How successful were defensive actions in terms of whether the challenges were won or lost? Secondly, outcome. Did Celtic win back possession due to the defensive actions?

Bear in mind that with Celtic full-backs, given the volume of offensive activity, there is noise regarding losing the ball in the opposition half whilst attacking.

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Amongst modern Celtic full-backs, only Mikael Lustig would surpass Johnston’s defensive numbers. And you could argue Lustig was a pseudo-centre-back who tucked into a three whilst Kieran Tierney rampaged forward on the other side.

Normally in data analysis amongst Celtic peers, small margins define differences between players irrespective of fan perceptions. Not here.

Johnston has a role for his national team as the right of a back three, and this skillset shines through when compared to Juranovic who is more of a traditional attacking full-back.

Overall, defensively, Johnston is a significant upgrade.

Ball Progression

Here we consider forward passing as evidenced by pack passing score and ball carries – successful progression with the ball at your feet (at least 10 yards made in the opposition half).

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Johnston averages 11.39 pack passes per 90 minutes and Juranovic 9.88. A small difference yet the resultant pack passing scores show a more significant difference (68.44 to 49.65). Meaning Johnston’s forward passing is more aggressive and takes more opponents out of the game.

Juranovic had the dribbling edge with 3.26 to 2.6 per 90 minutes. A much lower volume activity and less likely to take opponents out of the game – this is more about field position gain.

I’d prioritise pack passing unless the player is a dribbling monster like Jeremie Frimpong.

Chance Creation

We will measure this in two ways.

Firstly, the volume and quality of chances created from open play. Juranovic took set pieces so we removed those to ensure a level playing field for the analysis.

Volume is the number of open play chances created per 90 minutes and quality is the average xA per 90 minutes.

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Johnston has the edge in creating more chances – 1.73 to 1.19 from open play. We are back to the small margins I highlighted earlier.

But quality-wise, there is a big difference. Johnston’s chances have an average expected assist value of 0.29 (high) whilst Juraonvic’s are nearly half that at 0.15. Both played in teams trying to get low and firm passes across the six-yard box so I would not explain this through team style differences.

Such a difference in quality may come down to decision-making as to when to release the ball and the technical ability to put it in an area where your teammate is more favoured to score. Sunday’s cutback for Maeda is a good example. Johnston averages 0.18 xA per chance compared to 0.12 from Juranovic.

The second aspect is more about putting the ball into dangerous areas as exemplified by the overall cross-success rate and volume of successful passes into the danger zone (central to the goal inside the opponent's penalty box).

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Both players achieve similar danger zone pass volumes (0.87 and 0.92) whilst Johnston's crossing is more accurate – 21 per cent success versus 17.

All in, Johnston provides greater creativity in the opposition's final third from open play.

Pressing / Counter-pressing

Statsbomb calculates the volume of pressing and counter-pressing and the outcome – how often this results in the ball being regained.

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Johnston executes a higher volume of both pressures and counter-pressures.

And has a higher regain rate.

Johnston’s pressures result in a Celtic regain of the ball from 20 per cent of efforts. For Juranovic it is 24 percent.

With counter-pressures, the success rate is Johnston 13 per cent and Juranovic 19 per cent.

Johnston’s average starting position for pressing is 47 metres from his goal versus 41 from Juranovic. Both the volume and starting position reflect Brendan Rodger’s more aggressive pressing style over Postecoglou.

Johnston presses more often but Juranovic’s superior regain proportions indicate he was smarter at it.

On Ball Value

Statsbomb’s on-ball value metrics calculate the impact of each on-ball action positively and negatively.

Here is the composite view for the two.

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Statsbomb’s passing OBV correlates well with the packing data and Johnston has an overwhelming advantage on passing.

Also, Juranovic has a slight advantage in dribbling and carrying, again consistent.

Where the models diverge is in defensive actions. I would guess this is down to a methodological difference. Statabomb will rate OBV for each player with the whole league being the comparative population. I tend to compare Celtic players with each other – given the dominance of the Hoops and the gap to the contenders, I believe this allows a more robust comparison.

Both have negative shot OBV’s which I have not considered as it isn’t a core full-back attribute.

Summary

The data supports the notion that Johnston has been a significant upgrade on Juranovic. Bear in mind the Canadian is younger.

In particular, his passing and creative games bring more to the Champions. I’d also argue he is defensively more solid. Juranovic is the better ball carrier and smarter presser. By volume and impact, Johnston's strengths outweigh his fellow full-back.

Celtic need similar upgrades on Carl Starfelt, Aaron Mooy, Jota and Liel Abada... or to be patient!