Celtic's Dortmund disaster in the Champions League analysed

The hosts looked up for this game from the get-go and threatened from the off. Young English talent Jamie Gittens got beyond the defence, causing Kasper Schmeichel to bring the winger down in the box which resulted in a spot-kick. Brendan Rodgers’ former player and Dortmund captain Emre Can stepped up and scored from 12 yards, though Celtic would respond quickly. 

Indeed Maeda profited from a brilliant Arne Engels cross to level the game for Celtic, though this would not last. Four goals in 31 minutes from Karim Adeyemi – a first-half hat-trick – and Serhou Guirassy took the game away from the visitors – who were the architects of their own downfall. The latter would score again in the 66th minute before former Man City academy product Felix Nmecha would round off the scoring 10 minutes before the end – another heavy European defeat for Brendan Rodgers away from home.

Using StatsBomb data and analytics, The Celtic Way’s Ryan McGinlay brings you a match report unlike any other…

Match stats + race chart

For the first time this season – perhaps unsurprisingly – Celtic had less possession than their superior opponents on the night. On the other hand, the possession stats were closer than expected, at a rate of 52-48 per cent in favour of Nuri Sahin’s side.

 Of course, the important metric is the goal tally between both, though Dortmund massively overperformed concerning their xG total. Still, with 17 shots – 14 on target – the scoreline on the night did not flatter the home team. Admittedly, it could – and probably should – have been more, if not for Schmeichel in goals. To be brutally honest Celtic need to be managing more than two shots at goal to be harming teams like Dortmund – especially at their own ground.

When observing the race chart for last night’s game, Celtic were up against it from the very early stages. Despite managing to find that quickfire equaliser through Maeda, Dortmund pulled away from their opponents through the eyes of xG, as is shown by the distance between the respective sides. Thanks to Adam Idah’s massive chance in the second half, the xG gap was closed ever so slightly, yet that chasm was maintained through Nmecha’s strike – Dortmund’s seventh of the night.

Thanks to the quality of their finishes and chances created, StatsBomb gave Borussia Dortmund a 73 per cent chance of winning this contest. A draw was next at 18 per cent, whilst Celtic winning was only given a nine per cent chance of occurring.

Formation and passing

As is normally the case for Rodgers, he lined his side up in the usual 4-3-3 formation for this one. Schmeichel remained in goals, while Auston Trusty joined Liam Scales in defence alongside Greg Taylor and Alistair Johnston at left and right-back respectively. Callum McGregor was deployed in the base of the midfield and was joined by Paulo Bernardo and Engels, as Kyogo Furuhashi led the line, supported by wingers Maeda and Nicolas Kuhn.

Surprisingly, Celtic’s passing accuracy was quite high - at a rate of 85 per cent – though the hosts had 87 to their name. 415 of Celtic’s 487 passes were completed, though their slackness in this contest was preyed upon by Sahin’s side when under pressure.

The pass network considers OBV (on-ball values) to judge who had an effective game – or not – in match proceedings. Looking at the graphic above, it does not make for pleasurable viewing concerning Celtic’s effectiveness in possession. Indeed, Engels was the only player to receive pass marks on the ball – though that claim is debatable from those who watched the game unfold. Rodgers’ side’s lack of cohesion in transitioning the ball from the back to the forward areas is glaringly obvious, as players like Kyogo and Kuhn were feeding off of scraps due to their lack of service.

Engels led the game in OBV, with 0.36 accumulated from just 16 passes. Schmeichel had 0.13 from 23 of his passes, as Kuhn, Bernardo and Taylor all scored negatively in this metric.

Celtic’s key passes on the night tell their own story, as only four players contributed to this metric. Maeda, Engels, Hatate and McGregor all managed just one each, on what was a poor night creatively for the visitors.

Shooting

A bleak picture has been painted by Celtic’s shot map, as the club struggled to get anything going in an attacking sense. With four blocked shots, three low-xG chances from outside the box and two big chances from Maeda – the goal – and Idah, it was a scarce night for Rodgers’ side offensively.

We may as well talk about the only positive moment of the match – apart from the final whistle – for Celtic. Shortly after going behind due to Can’s penalty, Celtic worked it down the left side through Taylor to Engels, who played a wonderful ball into Maeda, who made a run into the box. The most Maeda-esque goal from the Japan winger, the ball hit off of his hip into the back of Gregor Kobel’s net to bring Celtic level.

Due to the close proximity of the chance, Maeda’s original xG was calculated at 0.42. which rose to 0.83 following his unorthodox touch from his hip. A nice moment on a night of utter despair for Celtic in the Champions League.

Again, Celtic’s top shooter table does not look great, as Engels had two to his name, alongside Maeda and substitute Hatate. Yang Hyun-jun and Idah also contributed one – the latter’s header a big chance to get on the scoresheet.

Defending

As has been mentioned already, Celtic were outfought by their German hosts, which is reflected in the defensive stats. Indeed, Dortmund outpressured Rodgers’ team at a rate of 204-165, whilst regaining the ball off of pressures at a rate of 41-29 – some damning numbers.

Maeda never stopped running, contributing 21 pressures in total, whilst Kuhn and Engels had 18 and 16 respectively, as well as Trusty in defence. A rough night in counterpressures for the visitors, as Engels led the team with just three, whilst five players contributed just two on the night. 

Despite having arguably his poorest game in a Celtic jersey, Johnston managed six combined tackles and interceptions – the highest for both sides. Trusty had five tackles to his name, as McGregor had two for each. Scales would contribute five clearances and three aerial duel wins – easily the best out of a bad bunch at the back last night.

Final thoughts

Despite Borussia Dortmund not having the same household names in their ranks such as Erling Haaland, Jude Bellingham, Marco Reus or Jadon Sancho, Sahin’s side were just too much for Celtic to deal with on the night.

It does beg the question: Will Brendan Rodgers adopt a more pragmatic approach from now on in Europe, especially against the likes of Atalanta in Bergamo and even at home versus RB Leipzig?

If any changes are to be made, then the first has to be keeping the backdoor shut in defence – allowing 14 shots on target for a dangerous team like Dortmund is one surefire way to suffer heavy defeats in the Champions League. This – coupled with taking more care and time in dangerous areas in their attacking and defending – should result in better performances, though the next two European games do not get any easier for Celtic.

Rodgers gets paid more than any manager that has come before him. He needs to find the solutions to the club’s constant European away-day miseries – before real damage gets done in this Champions League ‘League Phase’ concerning qualification to the next round…