Why Kasper Schmeichel was Celtic's best signing this summer

Although other deals took longer than most would have liked over the summer, the club did move relatively quickly to address the goalkeeper position, bringing in two new keepers in July. Viljami Sinisalo became the first Celtic summer arrival on the 16th of July, with Kasper Schmeichel recruited a few days later. 

22-year-old Finnish keeper Sinisalo signed from Aston Villa for a reported fee of around £1m, while 37-year-old Schmeichel was brought in on a free transfer, initially on a one-year deal but with the option of a second. The latter has been Brendan Rodgers’ first choice in the opening couple of months of the season, with Sinisalo playing understudy, a pecking order that most speculated when both deals were done.

So, how has the veteran Dane started as Celtic’s new first-choice goalkeeper? The former Leicester City stopper has played just under 700 minutes in the Scottish Premiership this season, which is probably a little off the ideal minute count for these things. However, let’s see what the data is saying to this point… 

Shot-stopping 

Let’s start with arguably the most fundamental aspect of goalkeeping, shot-stopping. How well has the 108-times capped Danish international performed when it comes to keeping the ball out of the net?

To assess this, we can use StatsBomb’s Goals Saved Above Average (GSAA) metric. StatsBomb defines this as ‘How many goals did the goalkeeper save/concede versus expectation (post-shot xG faced?). This can give us an indication of how many goals a goalkeeper is ‘preventing’. 

Above, we can see Schmeichel leads the way when it comes to this metric in the league so far this season, of all SPFL Premiership goalkeepers who have played a minimum of 300 minutes. His unmatched 0.33 GSAA per 90 has been worth a total value of 2.55 GSSA in his 691 minutes. Celtic’s number one is followed by the Bulgarian Dimitar Mitov (0.28 per 90), who has carried his St Johnstone form into his new club, high-flying Aberdeen. Motherwell’s Aston Oxborough (0.24 per 90) comes in third, with Rangers’ Jack Butland fourth (0.22 per 90). 

At the opposite end, struggling St Johnstone’s Ross Sinclair has the lowest (-0.87 per 90) while both capital sides poor early season form has not been helped any by their respective goalkeepers’ performances, Hearts’ Craig Gordon posting the second lowest GSAA (-0.58 per 90) and Hibs’ Josef Bursik currently the third lowest (-0.41 per 90). 

But how does Schmeichel’s early shot-stopping data compare to other Celtic goalkeepers in recent years? 

Very well, if the above is anything to go by, his current positive 0.33 per 90 is trending above any other Celtic goalkeeper going back to Gordon’s 2018/19 season in Glasgow. It also tops Fraser Forster’s productive third spell back at the club in 2019/20. Valsilis Barkas’ ill-fated 2020/21 season saw him post -0.60 per 90, so conceding a goal more than expected every other game. Scott Bain fared slightly better when he came in to replace the Greek that year, but he was still a net negative in this regard. However, his 2018/19 was more positive in this regard. Hart’s three domestic seasons could be summarised as ‘saved pretty much what would be expected’ with his three GSAA averages per 90 just slightly into the negative.

It is worth bearing in mind that some of these keepers faced varying levels of shot volume. Bain faced almost three (2.86 per 90) when he came in during the disastrous 2020/21 season, while Hart faced less than two (1.86 per 90 in 2021/22, 1.87 per 90 in 2022/23) in his two seasons under Ange Postecoglou. Schmeichel’s 1.95 shots faced per 90 in the league this season is roughly around the average, so his enhanced performances in this regard have not come from a lower number of shots faced than others.  

However, his less than 700 minutes is the lowest minute count by far, so it may be a little early to claim he is the best shot-stopper Celtic have had for several years just yet. This is also just in a league setting and does not include European performances (more on that later though).

What he has shown in his first few weeks as Celtic’s new number one is that, despite being the same age as the now-retired Hart, is that he still possesses good agility between the sticks. He retains speed when coming out to spread as well, his late save against Ross McCausland in the 3-0 Glasgow Deby victory last month was a good example of this.

Distribution

Domestically, being Celtic’s number one is a unique role. Stop-stopping is still crucial, but when facing less than two shots a game, compared to over 20 passes per 90 (Celtic goalkeepers have played an average of 21.35 per 90 over the last seven seasons in the league), the latter becomes more imperative.

It is in this regard that Schmeichel has been truly game-changing. Remarkably, the Dane is yet to misplace a short pass in a league for Celtic, according to Wyscout’s data.  

Again, smaller sample size warnings apply, but this is, unsurprisingly, unmatched by other Celtic goalkeepers over the past seven seasons. Forster and Gordon were fine shot-stoppers but never brilliantly suited to short passing build-up, as the above highlights. Hart, while never fully comfortable either, was at least functional domestically when it came to short passing. Bain’s 20/21 season was more successful when it came to shorter passing, while this was the one redeeming part of poor Barkas’ game with his 99.6 per cent the closest to Schmeichel. Hardly enough to redeem the other parts of his game though.

Not quite as important, given Rodgers’ preference to build up with shorter passes at the back, Schmeichel’s longer distributions in his first appearances show up well against other recent Celtic goalies too. His 66.7 per cent accuracy rate at this distance is only beaten by Bain’s two seasons. Again, like Barkas, it’s not exactly enough to outweigh other aspects of his game either. Sorry, Scott. 

Generally, the numbers back up what we have seen with the eyes – Schmeichel’s ability with the ball at his feet is far greater than most who have held the number one jersey at Celtic for a while. 

His comfort in taking and playing the ball under pressure has allowed Celtic to break through opponent’s presses quicker and more effectively, getting the ball into attacking and creative players in space earlier.

One of quite a few examples already this season came in the 3-1 League Cup victory over Hibs. Here, receiving the ball close to his goal line from Callum McGregor and with pressure coming in from Hibs attackers on both sides, Schmeichel played a first-time pass through the middle of the pitch. 

Picking out Reo Hatate in midfield, Schmeichel’s pass beat two lines of Hibs pressure and put a total of five opposition players on the other side of the ball, giving Celtic plenty of space to attack. 

Hatate was then able to drive into huge amounts of space in midfield, and right at the Hibs backline, with his final ball just inches away from picking out Nicolas Kuhn on the right-wing. All of this in just seconds from Schmeichel’s pass thanks to his willingness to play bravely, and quickly, from his goal line.  

Europe

What we have assessed so far has only considered league action and not European performances. With just two (wildly different) matches to consider, this is an even smaller sample size to assess. However, it is still perhaps worth a look at how Schmeichel’s displays have scaled to that stage thus far. 

As the above scatter from StatsBomb shows, his -0.30 GSAA per 90 (circled in red) comes in 42nd of all 60 goalkeepers who have played in the competition so far this season, including qualifiers. Although he will have felt he could have done better with some in Celtic’s 7-1 humbling at the hands of Dortmund, Schmeichel did come up against a dizzying 6.17 post-shot xG from 17 shots faced in Germany. Against Slovan Bratislava, the Slovakians put up a post-shot xG of 1.05 from their eight attempts at Celtic Park, so the one goal Schmeichel conceded that night was around what would be ‘expected’. 

Still too early to draw much from this but that -0.30 per 90 is above Hart’s 2023/24 Champions League GSAA of -0.79 (which was the lowest of all goalkeepers in the competition last season) but below the former England number one’s 2022/23 average of -0.12 per 90. 

His distribution has stood up well over the first two matches for sure though. His only misplaced short pass for Celtic this season so far, according to Wyscout, came in that 5-1 win over Slovan Bratislava at Celtic Park, and he completed all 20 of his short passes attempted in Dortmund. StatsBomb (also shown on the above scatter) has him at 93 per cent for passes completed under pressure, too, the 8th best in this season’s tournament at this stage. 

Conclusion

Kasper Schmeichel's early impact as Celtic's new number one has been impressive. His shot-stopping abilities, underscored by his leading GSAA in the Scottish Premiership, highlight a level of reliability between the sticks that was required following Joe Hart's retirement. 

What sets Schmeichel apart, though, has been his distribution – his ability to remain calm under pressure and initiate attacks from the back. This skill has played a key role in Celtic’s early season form, bringing an added dimension that has enabled quicker transitions and a more fluid style in line with Brendan Rodgers' philosophy. 

While it is still early days, particularly in the European context, Schmeichel’s experience and technical ability already indicate that he is not only a worthy successor to Hart but an upgrade, and one of the clubs’ shrewdest bits of business in recent times.