Does Celtic's record signing deserve his recent criticism?

Celtic’s record summer signing Arne Engels’ recent domestic performances have seen the Belgian come in for criticism from some fans.

The former Augsburg midfielder was heavily involved in the first half of the 2-2 draw with Aberdeen at Celtic Park last weekend, striking the crossbar before providing the ball for Kyogo to set up Reo Hatate as Brendan Rodgers' side put themselves in the driving seat against Jimmy Thelin’s high-flying Dons.

However, despite a bright first 45 minutes, Engels faded in the second half as the visitors fought back to claim a point. Not the only player in green and white to do so, of course, but some fans are calling for a bit more from Engels, who also produced a few lower-key performances before the international break. Those quieter displays from the Belgian international came after an impressive start to his Celtic career, which included two goals and two assists in his first four appearances in hoops.

It still feels very early to make definitive judgements about Engels so far, but a look at his data from his first performances can give a snapshot of the early weeks’ of his Celtic career. This can highlight some of what we have learned about Engels so far and also perhaps assess whether some of this early criticism of his performances is warranted in any way.  

To do this, we can compare Engels’ StatsBomb data against a couple of other Celtic number eights. Directly comparing him to peak Matt O’Riley seems unfair, particularly at this early stage, so Hatate and Paulo Bernardo will be used as comparators for this analysis.

Goal threat

Let’s take a look at the goal threat to kick off. Firstly, it is worth highlighting again the small sample sizes we are working with here. Engels has just under four 90s played in the Scottish Premiership, so still a bit off what is required for a more robust analysis. The numbers for Hatate and Bernardo are both taken from last season. Neither are huge samples either. Hatate suffered an injury-hit campaign, and Bernardo was mostly utilised as a squad player. Both did rack up over ten 90s, so they are still reasonable enough to use as comparisons.

Engels is yet to find the net from open play, his two goals coming from the penalty spot, so it’s no surprise both Hatate and Bernardo have the edge here. Their underlying goal-threat numbers also outshine Engels’ early league displays, though. Engels’ current 0.10 xG per 90 is less than half of Hatate’s last season (0.21 per 90) and trails Bernardo even further (0.27 per 90). Engels is so far averaging a far lesser volume of shots, too, just 1.61 per 90 compared to Hatate’s 3.18 per 90 and Bernardo’s 2.69 per 90. His average shot quality of 0.06 xG per shot is also the lowest, Bernardo with the highest of the three (0.10 xG per shot).

He's taken a similar number of touches in the box to both, so he’s getting into positions. He potentially just needs to get shots off a bit more readily. As the map below shows, he could perhaps take them on from more central areas, too. Of his five open play shots, only one has come from outside the box, but three of the five are bunched on the angle and just one from a more central position.

Chance creation

Creating chances for others is a key responsibility for a Celtic number eight, so let’s consider this next.

Engels does stand out here with his 0.24 xG Assisted and 2.42 key passes per 90, the highest of the three. This is, of course, boosted by his set-pieces (one of his three assists came from a corner in the 5-1 win over Slovan Bratislava in the Champions League, the other two were from open play, against Dortmund and Falkirk).

He still has the edge on Bernardo in open play though, with Engels registering 1.08 open play key passes per 90 and 0.11 open play xG Assisted per 90 in his first few league outings. Bernardo averaged 0.87 open play key passes per 90 and 0.10 open play xG Assisted last season in the Scottish Premiership.

Hatate’s output in this regard comes out as the strongest of the three, with the Japanese midfielder averaging 1.38 open play key passes per 90/0.19 open play xG Assisted per 90 across his league outings last season.

The above gives a bit more insight into Engels’ chance creation in the league to date. Here, we can see five of those nine total key passes in the league have come from corner kicks. The four open-play ones have tended to come from deeper areas with his average quality of chance (xG per shot), the same from open-play as set-play (0.10 xG per shot).

This perhaps points to two things. One, the quality of his deliveries from dead-balls has generally been very good, which matches the eye test. Two, the quality of his open-play creation could be a bit better. To come back to the two other midfielders, we are benchmarking Engels’ early displays against here, his 0.10 xG per shot is similar to Bernardo last season (0.11 xG per shot) but trailing the quality of chance Hatate created by a bit (0.16 xG per shot). Again, a small sample size of just nine key passes to consider here. More data is required here for sure.

Ball Progression

Next, we can see how Engels profiles versus Hatate and Bernardo regarding ball progression. The former Club Brugge prospect’s higher deep progressions (7.26 per 90) and Pass OBV (0.12 per 90) indicate an enhanced passing quality compared to Hatate and Bernardo. His lower xGBuildUp and xGChain scores suggest that he has been involved in fewer passages of play that have resulted in quality chances though. The latter is perhaps something that speaks to claims, particularly in the last few matches, that he is not as ‘involved’ in the game as he could be. Again, something to keep an eye when more data is available.

Elsewhere on the ball progression radars, we can see Engels dribbling and carrying profiles closer to Bernardo than Hatate, something which is one of the Japanese playmakers’ biggest strengths. That comes at the cost of high turnovers from Hatate, of course, with Engels again closer to the more secure on-the-ball Bernardo in this respect.

Defending

Finally, let’s consider work without the ball. 6ft Engels boasts the best aerial win percentage win rate of the three while some of his general defending, such as tackles and interceptions, are again closer to Bernardo, but not quite to the same volume. Engels’ current Tack/Dribbled % (71 per cent) is better than both Hatate and Bernardo posted last season.  

Not exactly a strength of Hatate either, but certainly one of Bernardo’s, Engels falls between both for his general pressing. Crucially though, Engels is the pick of the three when it comes to counterpressing. A pressure that occurs five seconds or less after a player’s team has lost the ball, counterpressing is something Rodgers is very much a proponent of. This was something O’Riley was consistent in and is likely one of the parts of the athletic Engels’ game that would have drawn him to the manager’s attention over the summer. 

Conclusion

This analysis has only given an initial snapshot of Engels’ early league performances. We have not touched on Europe much, and, in general, we still need a bigger sample to make more definitive assessments. One or two matches could still greatly alter data at this stage.  

What we can say is that it is perhaps understandable that some fans are looking for a bit more from Engels. Neither Hatate nor Bernardo were regulars last season for differing reasons, and some of Engels’ current data is trending lower than both in some key performance areas. There are encouraging signs though, including his volume of chance creation and the quality of his work in possession. Without the ball, his counterpressing certainly stands out.

His impact in those first few games may well have led to some unrealistic expectations, but it is worth bearing in mind that he only turned 21 just after his move, the same age O’Riley was when he joined Celtic. He is in the infancy of his Celtic career and will still be adjusting to a new environment and a new system of play.

His price tag will, fairly or otherwise, continue to see him placed under more scrutiny than most. However, Celtic’s investment in Engels was not just for the here and now but also for the future. Patience, not always in great supply in football, may be required when it comes to the young Belgian.