There is arguably no better story in Scottish football this season than the blistering start Jimmy Thelin has made at Aberdeen. Joint-top with the champions, having battled to a 2-2 draw at Celtic Park, and 15 wins out of 16 matches in all competitions.

Yes, the impacts of enforced financial austerity at Ibrox, the failure of a talented Heart of Midlothian squad to function, and the occasional bursts of quality from Dundee United, Motherwell and Dundee provide great entertainment, but nothing is as dandy as the Dons right now.

There is always an important context. They have not had to juggle European commitments like Hearts, St Mirren and Kilmarnock have failed to do. Aside from an injury to a blossoming Pape Habib Gueye, they’ve been able to pick from a settled squad mainly playing just one game a week. Their League Cup run, in particular, was kind as regards the number of fixtures versus lower league opposition - it was only latterly they played Celtic and Rangers in the league.

After Wednesday night's well-deserved 2-1 win over the Blues at Pittodrie, that’s four points out of six against the traditional top two. Are we taking them seriously now? To take the emotion out of it, despite being in favour of the early ‘80s vibes, we’ll turn to the data…

Dons' league comparison

If we start by looking at their attacking performances:

It is remarkable for its prosaicness. 1.26 xG per game is okay, but not stunning. They are bottom of the league in generating clear shots. xG generated from set pieces is low, and they don’t really hurt you on the counterattack.

The attacking profiles suggest a mid-table team. Is their success built on defensive solidity?

They are quite good at disrupting the opposition's passing rhythms, allowing only 73 per cent pass completion. But their xG conceded is 1.23 – meaning their overall xG difference is a paltry 0.03.

They are good at avoiding being caught on the counterattack and denying the opposition clear shots at goal. They have perhaps the deepest defensive line in the league and are happy to let the opposition have the ball unhindered allowing 9.82 passes per defensive action.

Most outstanding has been the form of goalkeeper Dimitar Mitov. He has the highest goalkeeper On Ball Value (OBV) from StatsBomb at 0.18, and he saves 0.26 goals above average per game – that is, he concedes 0.26 goals less than the expected goal models predict. He saves 79 per cent of shots whilst expected to save only 71 per cent.

Does all this suggest the beleaguered Philippe Clement was right when he bemoaned post-match at Pittodrie “It’s not that Aberdeen blew us away today, that’s also not the reality”?

Do the Dons defeat the data?

Analysing Scottish Premiership football can be a bit mundane at times given the propensity for long-ball orientation, and, against Celtic, teams to sit in with five or six at the back.

When Aberdeen came to Celtic Park, the first half played out in a remarkably similar way to many SPFL home games. A 2-0 half-time lead and all was set for a routine home win. Indeed, by the end, Celtic had racked up 4.17 xG. This is significant as Celtic have generated more than four xG 34 times by my records back to 2016-17. They had won all 33 previous matches only winning two by a single goal whilst the aggregate score in those matches was 146-17. That was until the Dons came calling.

Yet, I liked Aberdeen’s kick-off where a short pass back was to draw Celtic forward for a through ball directly down the middle to an attacker expecting it and travelling at pace. It did not come off, but I sat up immediately. There is a cohesion and organisation to the side which makes sense.

The centre-backs and central midfielders are not quick, and the goalkeeper is not as strong as a sweeper-keeper. So, it makes sense to have the defensive line stay deep. This has the additional benefit of stretching the field. Because in the attacking third you have an array of pacy players – Ester Sokler, Gueye, Duk, Tobi Keskinen, Shayden Morris.

Linking them, and pivotal to their style of play, is Jamie McGrath. His specialist role is an inside forward position where he aims to receive the ball in the half spaces and direct passes forward quickly and directly. No side is more direct by StatsBomb’s directness index. Their other standout attacking feature is their average shot length is 15.3 metres from goal, 93rd percentile in the league. Releasing the quick forwards early means driving into the box and cutting it back to central positions for strikes at goal. Their late winner at Ross County is a good example.

Whilst they are happy to sit deep, and given the limited pressing abilities of metronomic Sivert Heltne Nilsen and evergreen Graeme Shinnie, they are average in the pressing department. Other than counterpressure regains with 4.6 per game, in the 94th percentile. This speaks to a level of collective organisation and decision-making that reacts to the right triggers effectively. In other words, well-coached – quality over quantity.

With a deep defence, you need to get the ball up the pitch and whilst they are not averse to long balls, they also have one of the highest dribble OBVs at 0.53 per game. This is pivotal to release pressure and transition the game. They are also content to defend. As we saw last night as a desperate Rangers side sought and got an equaliser, they are prepared to suffer and do their jobs defensively. As the xG numbers show, they don’t chase goals and are happy to defend one-goal advantages – seven out of nine league wins have been by one goal.

To then lose the equaliser and refocus on the attack to get the winner speaks to the mentality of both sides. Numbers cannot show that collective will other than to highlight threats at each game state.

Against Rangers, Aberdeen threatened to walk away with the first half but mentally took a back step when McGrath’s pathetic penalty was saved. The second half was one of containment as Rangers gradually built an attacking threat. Once the equaliser went in, the Dons attack switched on again until the winner went in. Then they fell back happy to contain.

Their rearguard tenacity at Celtic Park in the last 15 minutes was also memorable.

So, are Aberdeen any good?

What does it all mean?

If you were to study the performance numbers, you might conclude they are an utterly unremarkable side relying on an outstanding shot-stopping goalkeeper to be on the right side of variance in a series of one-goal coin flips. I would not characterise them in that way, however.

I see a very organised side, playing in a style that fits perfectly the resources they have. Centre-backs and central midfielders that sit deep and protect the box and central areas. Full-backs who are dynamic and powerful and supplement the attack. An array of pacy forwards and wide players can be deployed on rotation for quick and direct channel balls. An emphasis on low cutbacks into the box central areas, and the best use of a playmaker to generate the early and low through balls that the forwards demand.

Add in a willingness to defend when necessary - not as a burden but as a badge of honour -, knowing you have an exceptional goalkeeper where needed, and you have something greater than the sum of the parts.

Some of these low-xG difference matches are not going to fall their way. They will get injuries to key personnel. But it goes to show what a superbly organised and sensibly deployed side can achieve. Celtic should have too much sheer quality at the weekend in the League Cup Semi-Final. It was historically astonishing they did not win the league tie at Celtic Park comfortably.

However, you wouldn’t want to fall a goal behind this Aberdeen team. On the other hand, after a raucous and emotional night at Pittodrie against Rangers, playing two high-profile games in three days will be yet another test for Thelin’s men. Celtic are used to this and rested many starters against Dundee.

Celtic will need to be watchful and patient on Saturday and may need to wait until late on to seal it.