Why Celtic's Schmeichel is the best goalkeeper in Scotland

Indeed, they were made to work for their three points, as Derek McInnes’ side pushed Brendan Rodgers’ side all the way in proceedings. Despite this, goals in either half from Callum McGregor and Nicolas Kuhn made sure that the spoils would go to the visitors – thanks to a little help from Kasper Schmeichel in goals.

Using StatsBomb data and metrics, The Celtic Way’s Ryan McGinlay brings you a match report unlike any other...

Key stats + race chart

Looking at the basic stats from proceedings at Rugby Park, you can see why McInnes felt hard done-by in this contest, as Kilmarnock registered more shots at goal – and in turn, a higher xG. With 18 shots, they tested Schmeichel six times with a cumulative xG of 1.71, compared to Celtic’s 10 on the day – though they had eight shots on target. With 1.37 combined xG, Celtic overperformed with the chances created – they got away with one, in other words. 65 per cent possession and an 83 per cent pass success rate suggest that the visitors dictated play, though the game did not pan out that way for large spells.

The race chart from the game is a bit of an eye-opener concerning Celtic’s attack, as Kilmarnock made the better chances out of the two teams, in turn leading on xG scores. The home side’s total continued to rise in the second half, though they could not beat the imperious Schmeichel in between the sticks, on what was his finest performance for the club yet.

Based on these xG totals, Celtic were given a 29 per cent chance of winning this contest, while Kilmarnock scored a 45 per cent probability – quite an unusual statistic for Rodgers’ side to contend with in domestic football. A draw was predicted as having a 26 per cent chance of occurring, given the chances that were created at both ends.

Formation + passing

As is usually the case, Rodgers set his team up in the familiar 4-3-3 formation for this game. Schmeichel remained in goals, while Greg Taylor retained his place ahead of Alex Valle, who has impressed recently. Liam Scales replaced Cameron Carter-Vickers in defence alongside Auston Trusty, while Alistair Johnston assumed his usual position at right-back. McGregor played at the base of midfield, supported by Arne Engels and Reo Hatate respectively, while Adam Idah led the line, with Kuhn and Daizen Maeda operating on the right and left-wing respectively.

Using StatsBomb’s passing networks, we can analyse the game further by using OBV (on-ball value). From the diagram above, Trusty, Johnston and especially Maeda had positive games in this metric, as their contributions in possession were seen as effective in the eyes of OBV. Schmeichel was also effective with his distribution – this is shown by his yellow colouring at the bottom of the diagram.

For exact statistics, Maeda led the way for OBV with 0.33 in total for his 16 passes. Johnston and Trusty made more distributions, though their OBV was lower at 0.18 and 0.12 respectively. Schmeichel scored 0.10 for his on-ball efforts.

In terms of key passers, there was no real standout for Celtic in this game, as Idah, Taylor and Kuhn all were joint-top with two. Luke McCowan managed one, as did Johnston, though it was not a creatively fluid game on Kilmarnock’s artificial surface.

Shooting

Perhaps the story of Sunday’s game is best told through Celtic’s admittedly bare shot map as they only managed 10 shots, though seven of these were on target, scoring two goals. Even still, it was a poor day for the visitors in front of goal, as it took a fluke goal from the captain and individual brilliance by Kuhn to settle the game in Celtic’s favour. Better finishing will be required after the international break, you would imagine.

Though Idah celebrated McGregor’s goal as if he had managed to get a touch on the dangerous cross, the Irishman was a spectator as the captain’s delivery made its way into the back of Robby McCrorie’s net in first-half stoppage time. His fifth goal of the season – all from outside the box – McGregor forced the issue and changed the narrative by putting Celtic ahead right before the break.

From 0.01 to 0.04 in xG-PSxG, it was an unlikely goal that somehow transpired for Celtic. They all count, however, and this one was big for Rugby Park’s visitors.

You cannot label Celtic’s second goal as a fluke, as this was brilliant from Celtic’s right-sided duo of Johnston and Kuhn. Inside his own half, the former lobs the ball into the direction of the latter, as Kuhn cut in and expertly dispatched the ball past McCrorie, who had no chance with the far-post finish.

A difficult chance due to the angle of the strike, Kuhn’s shot was registered as 0.15, before rising slightly to 0.21 in PSxG. For all the pressure that Celtic had soaked up, it was fitting that a moment of brilliance by Kuhn was the difference-maker between them and Kilmarnock on the day. A quality goal from the Scottish Premiership’s top player at the moment.

Speaking of Kuhn, he was Celtic’s top shooter on the day with three shots, while McGregor and Idah both had two. McCowan and Kyogo had one each.

Outfield defending

As is expected with more of the ball, Celtic were outpressured by the home side in this game at a rate of 229-132 in Kilmarnock’s favour. This was consistent with pressure regains, too, as McInnes’ side managed 44 to Celtic’s 24. Encouragingly, Hatate was Celtic’s top presser with 17, while also leading the way for counterpressures with six to his name.

Defensively, Scales and Trusty had a combined six tackles + interceptions between them, as well as 17 clearances and 15 aerial wins – a dominant display at the back from Celtic’s two most reliable defenders – especially fitness-wise.

Kasper Schmeichel

The Denmark legend deserves his own section here, as the Celtic number one’s performance was outstanding, especially when his side were under pressure in the second half at Rugby Park. 

Firstly, let’s look at his own shot map (save map, if you will). Saving six shots in total, Schmeichel’s GSAA (goals saved above average) was 0.77 – a non-negative statistic in this metric is always a good sign for a goalkeeper’s form and capabilities between the sticks. Matty Kennedy’s 0.43 xG opportunity (the orange shape on the save map) was matched by the keeper, who did well to save the strike that looked destined for the back of Celtic’s net.

Observing the Scottish Premiership statistical totals for goalkeepers in both goals conceded and GSAA, the 38-year-old is showing no signs of slowing down, as he the league in the former, while being only 0.1 behind Aberdeen’s Dimitar Mitov, who is having a great season under Jimmy Thelin. The statistics tell us that Schmeichel will likely be leading in both areas very soon unless Mitov continues to defy the odds in goals for the Dons – which is unlikely, though not impossible.

Final thoughts

Sunday’s game was very much a case of ‘job done’ for Celtic, though they were put through the ringer by an impressive Kilmarnock side, who tested them greatly. Indeed, they have their inspired goalkeeper to thank, as Schmeichel pulled off a number of good saves that allowed Celtic to keep another clean sheet – their ninth in 11 Premiership matches.

Now that the third international break is here, Rodgers and his side can take stock of a successful block of games, which included four points in the Champions League, a League Cup thrashing of Aberdeen and near-perfect form domestically – the only blot coming against Aberdeen at home, a game they should have won.

Though it wasn’t pretty in Ayrshire by any means, Celtic are in a very good place on the pitch at the moment. A big win for Rodgers’ team, especially at a difficult venue and surface.